Forget the Polls; Or, Just Change Your Mind About Them?

Dick Morris, GOP strategist, says the model pollsters use to forecast the 2012 election is misleading. Morris says it is not intentional deception but, instead, is the natural use of polling samples  weighed to imitate the 2008 election. The 2012 pollsters are giving heavier weight to ethnic minorities and young voters, who formed the core of the Obama victory in 2008.

Morris insists any polling model that weighs these groups as in 2008 rather than in 2004 are simply wrong. His opinion is based on simultaneous polls that show the very groups President Obama depends on (remember, that is black voters, younger voters and Latinos) have lost enthusiasm for Mr. Obama. They are not as likely to vote against the President but they are more likely not to vote at all.

Why? Morris points out these groups have become disenchanted with Mr. Obama because they are disproportionally represented among those who have suffered from the economic downturn. These groups are more likely to be unemployed or underemployed. They may have voted in significantly higher numbers than  ever in 2008 but there is a reason that was noteworthy; i.e., it was unusual and, so, is not likely to happen again.

Understand this; if Mr. Obama loses 1.5% of the African-American vote and 1% of the younger voters, he is actually behind in the polls 52-48, rather than ahead 50% to 45% because he is so dependent on those groups. These groups do not have to vote against him. They only have to stay home and not vote at all.

So, as ever, the polls have to be polled. Morris shows conclusively how the polls weighed like the election of 2004 rather than 2008 indicate Mr. Romney is actually no worse than dead even with the incumbent now. As ever, also, Mr. Morris is a fascinating thinker.

 

 

Opinions expressed here are mine alone.

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