According to the latest NYT/CBS poll, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for President Obama in the fall. The same poll shows 44% of likely voters would vote for Governor Romney.
Since there is a plus/minus of 3% in these samplings, one could easily say the possible election results now would be "too close to call." Each candidate has some problems to overcome.
Mr. Obama has the health-care issue to deal with and his problems are complicated by the pending actions of the US Supreme Court. If the Court issues a ruling at just the wrong moment the campaign might be altered considerably.
Mr. Romney has the health-care issue to deal with and his memory, apparently. Mr. Romney remembers enacting mandatory health coverage in Massachusetts but he does not remember urging the federal government to take his successful program nation wide, printed evidence to the contratry.
Mr. Obama has a nascent economic recovery with high unemployment built in to it. Granted, he inherited the mess from his predecessor but the American electorate tends to remember by-gone administations with more charity than clarity.
Mr. Romney has a nascent economic recovery with high unemployment built into it. If Mr. Romney is going to put himself forward as the practical minded business man who is a Washington outsider, he has historical precedent on his side. Herbert Hoover was a practical business man with no Washington connections. He won the White House but is not remembered with the same charity others receive.
Mr. Obama can point to the termination of Osama Bin Laden during his watch, the end of the incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan. Mr. Romney says he would have done more but is not yet specific about what he might have done.
One hopes social issues do not overhwhelm this election, what with the vast human suffering, unrest on our Southern Border and at least two rogue nations developing nuclear capability. Bill Clinton ran on economic issues and then had his first administration virtually eaten alive by leftist social issues. Granted, his administration balanced the budget, slowed government growth and left a surplus where there had been a deficit but his personal issues will write his legacy.
Mr. Obama has a chance to be something other. We do not yet know what Mr. Romney might be and so have nothing else to look at but his record.
Opinions expressed here are mine alone.