We have caucuses, crying, primaries and polling, followed by pouting and pronouncements ahead of us as we progress through Imposition 2012. In the process, the US economy will show some small improvement, Mr. Obama will mostly campaign from the White House while his GOP opponents fragment. One or two will run as Independents, scattering the "neo-con" vote.
We should note this fact. When former hard-liners bolt to run as Independents, they take with them their donor list. In the case of Mr. Paul this list is rather extensive. Mr. Perry will not run away to run as in Independent, but, if he did, he would take some seriously deep pockets with him. Donald Trump says he might run apart from the party if he does not get a candidate to his liking. He would take some money, attention and undecideds with him. In an election that will probably be won with a plurality rather than a majority, undecideds will matter even more.
Remind me one day soon to explain Undecideds for us.
Mr. Obama will win the National Imposition with a plurality, not a majority. Voter turnout will be less than 2008. Young people in particular will stay home, as well as Palin Republicans.
So, yes, Michael, I have called the General Election for Mr. Obama. With 0% of precincts reporting, based on my highly scientific exit polls (people leaving Starbucks after the morning coffee) and with an eye on history.
The races to watch will be in Nebraska, Nevada and North Dakota. In Nebraska an incumbent Senator will retire. Nevada could swing over to the GOP and North Dakota, one of the most Democrat-oriented states, is already moving to the GOP because of vast immigration north for jobs. If all three of those states lurch to the right, the next Congressional Session could be even more stormy than the last.
Opinions expressed here are mine alone.