So Many Polls, So Little Verity

   After the Ryan selection, some polls, particularly one called Purple State statistics, showed the Romney-Ryan ticket running slightly ahead of the Obama-Biden ticket in some swing states, particularly Ohio, Virginia and Florida. Other polls had Obama-Biden still ahead in these crucial states but now within the margin of error, = or – three. 

   Some of the major polls, like CNN.USAToday, and NYT have Obama-Biden ahead and gaining in these and other states. I note these are some of the same pollsters who had John Kerry 6 to 9 points of Bush II nationally. This did not work out well.

   I suppose this begs the questions, which poll do you believe and why? I try to read the fine print in the polling, when that is available. Some polls are skewed by target audience and others by response. I still believe the pollsters want to be accurate in their findings, lest they totally lose their place in our culture. I still think some of them are woefully inaccurate.

   My "feeling" is that the Akin thing in Missouri will effect only the Missouri Senatorial race and perhaps some down ticket races in Missouri. However, though Mr. Akin will now poll substantially behind the Democratic incumbent and starve for resources since the RNC and Super PACs do not wish to give him more money, the GOP will not prove big losers in Missouri. Senator Macaskill will almost undoubtedly hang on to that seat for six more years. 

   A candidate just cannot make a mistake like Mr. Akin in a high profile race and expect to recover. The talking heads who favor Democrats are trying to take his gaffe and pin it on Paul Ryan. This is the ripple effect and, skillfully done it can hurt. Do it as with a bludgeon and it will backfire.

   You can do polling on it.



Opinions expressed here are mine alone.

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