I spent a couple of days after the election watching the talk shows that feature Liberals who are Liberals without apology. Not the tired old guy in the suspenders on Fox, no. I mean the MSNBC lineup and some NPR. They can give good information but they are left of center on these shows and do not mind being called Liberals.
Their giddiness is understandable, even predictable, but it is almost too much to bear. Lawrence O’Donnell could not keep himself from saying “Republicans need to do some soul searching…if they have a soul…” and then grinning excitedly. Chris Matthews called Hurricane Sandy “a good thing…it stopped Romney’s momentum…” and so ignored, with his warm Liberal heart, the 100+ dead and the thousands without homes, who might not think Sandy was so great.
I predicted Mr. Obama’s squeaker of a win a full year ago. At the time, looking at the GOP field of prospective candidates, I predicted a comfortable margin of victory, which did not occur. I did predict the victory, however, and clung to my belief even after the First Debate.
I thought Mr. Obama would use the power of incumbency to win. He did. I thought the broadening of the electorate in the national election cycle would erase the gains of 2010 by the GOP. It did. I thought the older white generation might tend to stay home in larger numbers because the evangelical candidates were not scintillating. The evangelicals did not finally turn out to support an LDS elder.
Now, as we stagger toward the 2016 election cycle, let me predict:
- The 2014 midterms will repeal some of the Democratic gains in the House, hold the governships and start to gain some momentum for 2016,
- The short coat tails of the two main candidate will shorten even more in 2016, as more and more Americans vote Independent-Conservative rather than Independent-Moderate.
- The Democrat majority is tenuous and will not necessarily transfer from the current African-American incumbent to whomever runs in 2016. This will be very true if the next Dem is Joe Biden.
- The GOP will not repeat the Todd Akin and Richard Murdoch debacles. Rape is not a good issue. You can be pro-life without running, or being pushed, to some extreme.
Let the games begin!