Today’s Early Polls Have President Obama Up in Iowa, Colorado and Wisconsin

Forget about the polls. You will hear fifty poll reports per day from now until the polls open the first Tuesday  in November.

On the other hand, if you follow the polls at all, the latest early polls have Mr. Obama up now in three key states, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. The same set of polls have Mr. Obama up over the crucial 50% mark in support nationally.

So, since it is very interesting, what with the race and all, let’s talk about…polls.

Overnights that major on phone sampling from a small population in a specific area tend to oversample Democrats, so it is not necessary to overvalue these polls.

The pollsters strive for accuracy, whatever you might think. They are more concerned with working next year than making a splash this year.

Pollsters who over-sample Democrats skew their own numbers. It is not the way to go. Yet, everything I see tells me Democrats are being overvalued for poll numbers so far this campaign. Mr. Romney will come out looking like the loser in polls that over-sample Democrats. Mr. Romney is a poor campaigner prone to lots of small mistakes but he has done nothing so far that would eliminate him for consideration in the face of 8% unemployment and a $16 trillion deficit.

Mr. Romney, God save and keep him from his vile heresy, is not out of money, he has not made the huge error, he is in no moral danger. He smirks too much and says odd things. He apparently has no plan to do anything other than win the presidency.

In short, he will not be exciting a room any time soon.

Yet, and you read it here, I am now of the belief Mr. Romney will win the general election in the fall. He survived the convention, though there were delegates who returned home from the convention cursing Mr. Romney and his staff. It was not a happy family of GOPers who gathered around the old campfire.

Mr. Romney is correctly spending his campaign billions in the swing states, in the 12  counties in America likely to decide the election. He still has to navigate the debates. Since he is so far behind he may be tempted to swing for the fences and no one could blame him. He will find Mr. Obama is made of sterner stuff than a drug-addled Rick Perry.

And the reason(s) I believe Mr. Romney is in a virtual tie with Mr. Obama, regardless of the approval/disapproval ratings in the battleground states, where Mr. Romney is found unlikable in all the polls when compared to Mr. Obama (favorable over unfavorable), there is the nagging matter of the economy. In all things economic, not foreign policy or anything else, Mr. Romney rates dead even with Mr. Obama when polls turn just to the economy. In polls featuring economic issues, there is no difference between what likely voters think of Mr. Romney over against Mr. Obama. Ergo, it says here, when the levers start to be pulled (early voting starts in Iowa in TWO WEEKS) the average Joe Voter will give his wallet the eye test. When he opens his wallet, if a moth flies out, his wallet will have flunked the eye test.

Joe Voter will then vote for change, which is bad for the incumbent. Mr. Obama being the incumbent, this really bad economy will lead to his defeat. I still believe the vote itself will be tight in terms of popular vote, though electorally the result may look like a wide victory. Neither fellow will receive anything resembling a mandate, even among those who vote and voter turnout will continue to be low, compared to past generations. Mr. Obama currently holds a 247 to 191 electoral edge (projected) over Mr. Romney, with Iowa being moved into the Obama column this week. The winner has to have 270 electoral votes. Yes, 23 projected votes would do it for Mr. Obama.

What could the GOP do better? They could actually run a Republican, not someone whose whole national resume reads: Failed in two previous nomination fights.

Mr. Romney cannot do the Reagan. The Reagan is an act of political bon homme, wherein a candidate simply smiles, points to his opponent’s bad record and says, “Do you want four more years of this?”

Mr. Romney cannot do the Reagan for the simply reason that Mr. Obama’s record is Mr. Romney’s record. Mr. Romney’s only electoral record is his gubernatorial win in Massachusetts. He is on record there as being pro-choice, pro-gun control and socialist in health care provision. He cannot simply point to Mr. Obama’s record and tout the difference. There is not one. If it comes down to just a matter of records, we might as well save the country the cost of moving Mr. Obama back to Chicago, or Nairobi.

So, Republicans should search high and low (but not too low) prior to 2016, if we even get there, and find a Republican to run for the office. They should not look at the losers from the 2008 and 2012 races and decide who is next. Get an honest to God Republican, inspect his record to see what he has done and then push him hard to do what he should do.

For this year, 2012, I think the election will be settled in secret. Polls are not as helpful in secret.

Still, here is my belief. When the curtains close in November and the voter is left with his or her own conscience, I think Mitt will emerge as the worst of candidates who may make the best of presidents. Look for rocky riding in his first 100 days and don’t worry about a new face on Rushmore. I do think Mr. Romney will be our next POTUS.

 

 

Opinions here are mine alone.

One Response to Today’s Early Polls Have President Obama Up in Iowa, Colorado and Wisconsin

  1. Lee says:

    I’m not a prophet, nor the son of one as the saying goes. But I’m of the opinion that Mr. Romney cannot put together the electoral coalition of states that he needs to win the election. I think it is the battery of PACs and SuperPACS who can throw their money into the election process without accountability that is actually going to cause this to take place.

    Of course, if you listen to the Democrats, you would think that they are getting outspent, and that the GOP has assembled a giant coalition of SuperPACS to outspend them two to one. If you think there’s even a hint of truth in what gets reported, what is just a shade more accurate is that the amount of Super PAC dollars being spent by Democrats is only slightly less than the amount spent by Republicans, not enough to make much of a difference. However, even though the total amount of money raised by the Romney campaign is close to what the President has raised, he has already spent 40% of it, much of it on winning primaries to win the nomination of his party. The President has about twice as much to spend on his campaign directly. The amount of money raised and spent has a direct impact on the outcome of the election, especially since it depends on turnout and electoral votes.
    The GOP SuperPAC pulled out of Pennsylvania a week ago. Romney was too far behind in the polls and all they really do is buy television ads. This was an area where they were supposed to have a lot of support but, bad news, Western PA unemployment is low, and support for Obama is high. The GOP is really scrambling over in Ohio, because they can’t pull out of there without essentially conceding the election, but Romney has gone from four points behind there to eight today.
    Of all the candidates in the GOP field, I think Romney was the most unelectable, perhaps next to Sarah Palin. In the primaries, he never crested 50% of the party support until everyone else had dropped out, and they’re not enthused about him now. I think the President’s constituents, the fact that there has been economic recovery, and the fact that he has what appears to be insurmountable leads in the polls in Ohio, Virginia and Florida, which are considered essential to Romney’s chances, will lead to Romney’s defeat.

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