On the other hand, if you follow the polls at all, the latest early polls have Mr. Obama up now in three key states, Colorado, Iowa and Wisconsin. The same set of polls have Mr. Obama up over the crucial 50% mark in support nationally.
So, since it is very interesting, what with the race and all, let’s talk about…polls.
Overnights that major on phone sampling from a small population in a specific area tend to oversample Democrats, so it is not necessary to overvalue these polls.
The pollsters strive for accuracy, whatever you might think. They are more concerned with working next year than making a splash this year.
Pollsters who over-sample Democrats skew their own numbers. It is not the way to go. Yet, everything I see tells me Democrats are being overvalued for poll numbers so far this campaign. Mr. Romney will come out looking like the loser in polls that over-sample Democrats. Mr. Romney is a poor campaigner prone to lots of small mistakes but he has done nothing so far that would eliminate him for consideration in the face of 8% unemployment and a $16 trillion deficit.
Mr. Romney, God save and keep him from his vile heresy, is not out of money, he has not made the huge error, he is in no moral danger. He smirks too much and says odd things. He apparently has no plan to do anything other than win the presidency.
In short, he will not be exciting a room any time soon.
Yet, and you read it here, I am now of the belief Mr. Romney will win the general election in the fall. He survived the convention, though there were delegates who returned home from the convention cursing Mr. Romney and his staff. It was not a happy family of GOPers who gathered around the old campfire.
Mr. Romney is correctly spending his campaign billions in the swing states, in the 12 counties in America likely to decide the election. He still has to navigate the debates. Since he is so far behind he may be tempted to swing for the fences and no one could blame him. He will find Mr. Obama is made of sterner stuff than a drug-addled Rick Perry.
And the reason(s) I believe Mr. Romney is in a virtual tie with Mr. Obama, regardless of the approval/disapproval ratings in the battleground states, where Mr. Romney is found unlikable in all the polls when compared to Mr. Obama (favorable over unfavorable), there is the nagging matter of the economy. In all things economic, not foreign policy or anything else, Mr. Romney rates dead even with Mr. Obama when polls turn just to the economy. In polls featuring economic issues, there is no difference between what likely voters think of Mr. Romney over against Mr. Obama. Ergo, it says here, when the levers start to be pulled (early voting starts in Iowa in TWO WEEKS) the average Joe Voter will give his wallet the eye test. When he opens his wallet, if a moth flies out, his wallet will have flunked the eye test.
Joe Voter will then vote for change, which is bad for the incumbent. Mr. Obama being the incumbent, this really bad economy will lead to his defeat. I still believe the vote itself will be tight in terms of popular vote, though electorally the result may look like a wide victory. Neither fellow will receive anything resembling a mandate, even among those who vote and voter turnout will continue to be low, compared to past generations. Mr. Obama currently holds a 247 to 191 electoral edge (projected) over Mr. Romney, with Iowa being moved into the Obama column this week. The winner has to have 270 electoral votes. Yes, 23 projected votes would do it for Mr. Obama.
What could the GOP do better? They could actually run a Republican, not someone whose whole national resume reads: Failed in two previous nomination fights.
Mr. Romney cannot do the Reagan. The Reagan is an act of political bon homme, wherein a candidate simply smiles, points to his opponent’s bad record and says, “Do you want four more years of this?”
Mr. Romney cannot do the Reagan for the simply reason that Mr. Obama’s record is Mr. Romney’s record. Mr. Romney’s only electoral record is his gubernatorial win in Massachusetts. He is on record there as being pro-choice, pro-gun control and socialist in health care provision. He cannot simply point to Mr. Obama’s record and tout the difference. There is not one. If it comes down to just a matter of records, we might as well save the country the cost of moving Mr. Obama back to Chicago, or Nairobi.
So, Republicans should search high and low (but not too low) prior to 2016, if we even get there, and find a Republican to run for the office. They should not look at the losers from the 2008 and 2012 races and decide who is next. Get an honest to God Republican, inspect his record to see what he has done and then push him hard to do what he should do.
For this year, 2012, I think the election will be settled in secret. Polls are not as helpful in secret.
Still, here is my belief. When the curtains close in November and the voter is left with his or her own conscience, I think Mitt will emerge as the worst of candidates who may make the best of presidents. Look for rocky riding in his first 100 days and don’t worry about a new face on Rushmore. I do think Mr. Romney will be our next POTUS.
Opinions here are mine alone.